The sand does rule out here when it decides to take to the air so I have been stuck on Camp Speicher for the past week as the sand storms keep driving through. No trips to write about this time around and life can be pretty “normal” here on camp. Some of the locals do try to keep everyone’s senses alert as they sneak in under cover of sand and pop off a few rockets in this direction during the storms. Everybody appreciates them thinking of us and giving us samples of Syria’s ordinance.
The biggest event up here in the north right now is the kickoff of Operation Lion’s Roar. Lion’s Roar is an Iraqi planned and (so far) Iraqi led operation to hit al-Qaeda in Iraq and their Islamic Sons of Iraq (AQI/ISI) brothers up in Mosul. AQI/ISI have vowed that they will never be pushed from Mosul and the Iraqi government has vowed that it will finish AQI/ISI off once and for all. My educated guess is that the result of the operation will be somewhere in between those two promises.
I will start by saying again that it is a big deal when the Iraqi Army takes the initiative. Whether this operation turns out to be a 100% military win for the Army or not, the first success was that these guys put this plan into motion and they are executing their plan. Not only that, but the plan involves the local and national police as well, so this is good for the security forces in general. To top it off, they have even included the air assets that they have, including their helicopters. (The operation has now been ongoing for several weeks).
When this operation started, the commanding Iraqi general announced a total curfew for the city. That curfew was partially lifted after a couple of days, and hundreds of arrests have been made by the Iraqi forces. Lion’s Roar has been more of a round up than an actual military battle so far as there has been very little fighting. The Iraqis are uncovering dozens of weapons caches in the area based on some good tips by the locals. Let’s hope that the arrests that are being made are arrests of the right people, but a lot of these AQI types are laying low. They really can’t afford to engage in a head-on fight right now, so I imagine that they will try to make themselves heard when this operation is over.
I know that it would have been great if after the 2003 portion of the war, the Iraqis would have immediately understood how to operate a democracy and immediately understood how to develop industry and a work ethic and a competent police and military force, but that didn’t happen. Years of socialist oppression obviously took a toll. Let me share a few positive signs that may point to a little brighter future for this country.
The push by General Petreaus to get US forces into the neighborhoods of ordinary Iraqis is having a big impact on how the Iraqis view Americans. They have always been taught that we were the bad guys, and when our forces stayed behind walls or in their armored vehicles, that made it easy for the insurgents to continue to portray our guys as the bad guys who don’t care about the people. The group who is showing the most outward signs of having a growing trust in US forces is the youth. More and more, it is the kids who are providing the truthful tips on locations of IEDs and weapons caches. It bodes well that this generation of kids is seeing the good side of the US and not the bad that their parents have always been taught. By the way, they are also feeding intelligence to their own army and police as well, which in some ways is an even bigger step for them.
A couple of weeks ago, several politicians from the Iraqi Parliament held a protest march in Sadr City to protest the violence. So what – there are protests every day in Washington D.C. Can you imagine a protest march in Iraq six years ago when Saddam ruled this country? It would last approximately one block until Saddam had time to get his firing squad lined up to end that march. While the Iranians were busy trying to keep the al-Mahdi Army firing at the Green Zone, these politicians were marching for an end to the violence. A simple act like that is another leap forward in this country.
I have mentioned that AQI is attempting to get women to “volunteer” to be suicide bombers. I may be wrong, but there do not appear to be all that many takers on that offer. On the other hand, women are volunteering to be part of the citizen forces that are fighting the insurgency. Out in Fallujah, there is now a “Sisters of Fallujah” organization. These women are providing security and they are very useful when it comes to searching other females, which is timely with the elevated female suicide bomber threat right now. The Fallujah sisters are a Sunni outfit, and south of Baghdad, a group called the Daughters of Iraq is a Shiite group of women formed for the same purpose. While the US has been funding these concerned citizen groups, the Iraqi government is now moving to take over the payments. Maybe it is more accurate to say that the US is beginning to hand over the responsibility of the payments to the Iraqi government. I think that they will sit back and let us pay forever if we want to.
Iraq’s president al-Maliki gained tremendous credibility with the Sunnis in this country when he took on fellow Shiites in Basra and Sadr City. The Sunni legislators had accused him of only focusing on the AQI threat, and they were actually threatening to boycott Parliamentary sessions to protest what they claimed was a very one sided government. This move by Maliki against the Shiite militia groups has caused the Sunni block to rejoin the political activities in Baghdad. I already mentioned that in Sunni provinces, the expected voter turn out is expected to be fairly high. They have decided that if they can’t shoot their way into office, they want to vote their way in. I call that progress. (The Sunni law makers have recently threatened to sit out the political process once again, but we will see how far they take that threat).
One more piece in this Iraq puzzle that is beginning to take shape is that the security forces are beginning to show some resolve. Some of these US soldiers who have been here in the past have watched as Iraqi police or army units would literally turn and run away from the sound of gunfire. That isn’t happening anymore. Although the security forces are targeted, they are standing and fighting now. They have a ways to go in many respects, but they are engaging the enemy now. The constant mentoring and training by the US forces and by the US civilian police officers who are over here is paying off, particularly in the area of professionalism (of course, one of our military police officers joked that we should pass a lesson learned from the streets of the US onto the Iraqi police - that lesson being that you should always make sure that there are no helicopters with cameras overhead before you begin to beat on your unarmed suspect).
Anyway, there is plenty of work to be done in this place, both by the US and by the Iraqis themselves. The borders of this country are too wide open and too easily crossed by foreign insurgents. The Iraqis are beginning to get tired of the meddling by these people, and that is a good thing because they are not being welcomed to hide in the communities.
The picture is actually one of the sunny days at Speicher. The sand makes it presence known even then.
Take care.
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